{"id":1496,"date":"2025-09-26T22:01:15","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T20:01:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/?p=1496"},"modified":"2025-09-26T22:01:26","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T20:01:26","slug":"velky-obrat-ve-volebnich-preferencich-ano-oslabuje-vladni-strany-miri-k-rekordni-vetsine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/2025\/09\/26\/velky-obrat-ve-volebnich-preferencich-ano-oslabuje-vladni-strany-miri-k-rekordni-vetsine\/","title":{"rendered":"Velk\u00fd obrat ve volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00edch: ANO oslabuje, vl\u00e1dn\u00ed strany m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed k rekordn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 politika za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 z\u00e1sadn\u00ed obrat. Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fzkum agentury STEM\/MARK pro Institut H21 ukazuje, \u017ee hnut\u00ed ANO Andreje Babi\u0161e pad\u00e1 pod psychologickou hranici 30 procent a zastavilo se na 27,5 %. Zat\u00edmco je\u0161t\u011b ned\u00e1vno p\u016fsobilo neohroziteln\u011b, dnes se dost\u00e1v\u00e1 pod tlak koalice SPOLU, kter\u00e1 se stabilizovala na necel\u00fdch 18 %. Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed blok tak ukazuje, \u017ee po m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch kriz\u00ed a slo\u017eit\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dnut\u00ed nen\u00ed zdaleka odeps\u00e1n, ale naopak m\u016f\u017ee v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch volb\u00e1ch dos\u00e1hnout historick\u00e9ho v\u00fdsledku.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Souboj o t\u0159et\u00ed m\u00edsto je dnes mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b t\u011bsn\u00fd a dramatizuje politickou mapu. Pir\u00e1ti, kte\u0159\u00ed v roce 2023 ode\u0161li z vl\u00e1dy a byli mnoh\u00fdmi odepisov\u00e1ni, se dok\u00e1zali vr\u00e1tit do hry a nyn\u00ed s 11,7 procenta prakticky dorovn\u00e1vaj\u00ed hnut\u00ed STAN s 11,6 procenta. Oba subjekty p\u0159itom dotahuj\u00ed SPD, je\u017e by z\u00edskala 12,3 procenta. Motorist\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed se ned\u00e1vno stali nov\u00fdm protestn\u00edm hnut\u00edm, se s 7,6 procenta p\u0159ibli\u017euj\u00ed Sta\u010dilo! (7,9 procenta). Na rozd\u00edl od zaveden\u00fdch stran ale stoj\u00ed jejich podpora na rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch nespokojen\u00fdch voli\u010d\u00edch a zat\u00edm nemaj\u00ed jasnou p\u0159edstavu, jak by se zapojili do povolebn\u00edho vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pr\u016fzkum tak\u00e9 ukazuje, odkud jednotliv\u00e9 strany \u010derpaj\u00ed podporu. Zat\u00edmco ANO si udr\u017eelo 71 % sv\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f z roku 2021, koalice SPOLU p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed o polovinu t\u011bch p\u016fvodn\u00edch. \u010c\u00e1st z nich p\u0159et\u00e1hlo hnut\u00ed STAN, \u010d\u00e1st se p\u0159iklonila k Pir\u00e1t\u016fm a zaj\u00edmav\u00fd d\u00edl z\u00edskali i Motorist\u00e9. To vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d m\u00e1 ANO st\u00e1le n\u00e1skok \u2013 ale u\u017e nikoli drtiv\u00fd. SPOLU p\u0159itom ukazuje, \u017ee m\u00e1 \u0161anci na n\u00e1vrat, proto\u017ee krom\u011b loaj\u00e1ln\u00edho j\u00e1dra dok\u00e1\u017ee z\u00edsk\u00e1vat druhotnou podporu od voli\u010d\u016f st\u0159edov\u00fdch stran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na mo\u017en\u00e9 povolebn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, vl\u00e1dn\u00ed strany maj\u00ed otev\u0159enou cestu k v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b. SPOLU, STAN a Pir\u00e1ti by dohromady podle propo\u010dtu z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch preferenc\u00ed dos\u00e1hli na 105 a\u017e 110 mand\u00e1t\u016f, co\u017e by znamenalo pohodlnou v\u011bt\u0161inu. Pokud by se jim nav\u00edc poda\u0159ilo p\u0159et\u00e1hnout je\u0161t\u011b \u010d\u00e1st nerozhodnut\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f \u010di b\u00fdval\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f ANO, nebyla by vylou\u010dena ani \u00fastavn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161ina nad 120 k\u0159esel. To by otev\u0159elo cestu k dlouhodob\u011b stabiln\u00ed vl\u00e1d\u011b a umo\u017enilo by prosadit i zm\u011bny, kter\u00e9 dnes blokuje rozdroben\u00fd parlament \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad zakotven\u00ed \u010dlenstv\u00ed \u010ceska v EU a NATO p\u0159\u00edmo do \u00fastavy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Naopak Babi\u0161 m\u00e1 dnes v\u00fdrazn\u011b omezen\u00e9 mo\u017enosti. Jeho jedin\u00fdm re\u00e1ln\u00fdm partnerem by byla SPD, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b spolu s nimi i hnut\u00ed Sta\u010dilo!. Ani v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by v\u0161ak trojice nedala dohromady v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 a\u017e 95 k\u0159esel, co\u017e je k sestaven\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny m\u00e1lo. Nav\u00edc by \u0161lo o spojen\u00ed politicky toxick\u00e9 a obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 pro \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ve\u0159ejnost i mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed partnery. Koalice ANO se st\u0159edov\u00fdmi stranami je prakticky vylou\u010dena \u2013 voli\u010di by ji vn\u00edmali jako zradu a sama ANO by ztratila tv\u00e1\u0159.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je\u0161t\u011b jasn\u011bji ukazuje izolaci Babi\u0161e alternativn\u00ed volebn\u00ed metoda D21, kdy mohou voli\u010di ud\u011blit dva hlasy. Zat\u00edmco ANO v n\u00ed z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 jen minimum druhotn\u00e9 podpory, STAN a Pir\u00e1ti sb\u00edraj\u00ed v\u00fdraznou podporu od voli\u010d\u016f SPOLU i mezi sebou navz\u00e1jem. To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee v re\u00e1ln\u00fdch povolebn\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch by vl\u00e1dn\u00ed blok m\u011bl mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed man\u00e9vrovac\u00ed prostor a schopnost uzav\u00edrat dohody.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Souvislosti jsou z\u0159ejm\u00e9: ANO se vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1, proto\u017ee stav\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u00fdhradn\u011b na protestu a na osob\u011b sv\u00e9ho p\u0159edsedy. Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed blok naopak, navzdory n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9mu obdob\u00ed spojen\u00e9mu s inflac\u00ed, v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b i energetickou kriz\u00ed, ukazuje odolnost a schopnost dr\u017eet sm\u011br. Podpora proevropsk\u00fdch stran tak nen\u00ed jen v\u00fdrazem d\u016fv\u011bry ve vl\u00e1du, ale i odm\u00edtnut\u00edm n\u00e1vratu k autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9mu stylu vl\u00e1dnut\u00ed, kter\u00fd Babi\u0161 symbolizuje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pokud by se tento trend potvrdil i v dal\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch, \u010dekala by \u010ceskou republiku po p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch volb\u00e1ch nov\u00e1 \u00e9ra \u2013 \u00e9ra siln\u00e9 a stabiln\u00ed proz\u00e1padn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 by dok\u00e1zala prosadit reformy, na n\u011b\u017e zem\u011b \u010dek\u00e1 od devades\u00e1t\u00fdch let. A Andrej Babi\u0161? Ten by se po letech dominance musel sm\u00ed\u0159it s rol\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00edho l\u00eddra, jeho\u017e \u010das na skute\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1vrat k moci se mo\u017en\u00e1 definitivn\u011b uzav\u00edr\u00e1.<\/p>\n<\/p>

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\u010cesk\u00e1 politika za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 z\u00e1sadn\u00ed obrat. Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fzkum agentury STEM\/MARK pro Institut H21 ukazuje, \u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1497,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,55],"tags":[144,581,572,570,580,574,576,575,578,571,579,573,557,577,569],"class_list":["post-1496","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cesko","category-hlavni-udalosti","tag-andrej-babis","tag-ceska-politicka-scena","tag-ceska-politika","tag-koalice-spolu","tag-oslabeni-ano","tag-politicka-situace-cesko","tag-protestni-hnuti-motoriste","tag-pruzkum-stem-mark","tag-stabilni-prozapadni-vlada","tag-stan-a-pirati","tag-ustavni-vetsina-cesko","tag-vladni-vetsina-cesko","tag-volby-2025-cesko","tag-volby-a-povolebni-scenare","tag-volebni-preference-ano","pmpro-has-access"],"mb":[],"mfb_rest_fields":["title","gutenberg_elementor_mode"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1496","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1496"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1496\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1498,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1496\/revisions\/1498"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1497"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1496"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1496"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1496"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}