{"id":1502,"date":"2025-09-27T15:40:56","date_gmt":"2025-09-27T13:40:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/?p=1502"},"modified":"2025-09-27T15:40:57","modified_gmt":"2025-09-27T13:40:57","slug":"ano-dal-dominuje-spolu-ztraci-presuny-volicu-odhaluji-necekane-trendy-pred-rijnovymi-volbami","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/2025\/09\/27\/ano-dal-dominuje-spolu-ztraci-presuny-volicu-odhaluji-necekane-trendy-pred-rijnovymi-volbami\/","title":{"rendered":"ANO d\u00e1l dominuje, SPOLU ztr\u00e1c\u00ed. P\u0159esuny voli\u010d\u016f odhaluj\u00ed ne\u010dekan\u00e9 trendy p\u0159ed \u0159\u00edjnov\u00fdmi volbami"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Pokud by se sn\u011bmovn\u00ed volby konaly u\u017e v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stranou by z\u016fstalo hnut\u00ed ANO. Podle aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho volebn\u00edho modelu agentury Kantar by jej podpo\u0159ilo 33 procent voli\u010d\u016f, tedy stejn\u00fd pod\u00edl jako v srpnu. V\u00fdsledky dnes zve\u0159ejnila \u010cesk\u00e1 televize.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Druh\u00e9 m\u00edsto dr\u017e\u00ed koalice SPOLU, kter\u00e1 v\u0161ak ztratila p\u016fl procentn\u00edho bodu a aktu\u00e1ln\u011b by z\u00edskala 19,5 procenta hlas\u016f. Naopak hnut\u00ed STAN pos\u00edlilo na 13 procent. O \u010dtvrt\u00e9 m\u00edsto by se d\u011blily SPD a Pir\u00e1ti \u2013 oba subjekty maj\u00ed v modelu shodn\u011b 9,5 procenta. Do sn\u011bmovny by se dostala tak\u00e9 levicov\u011b-populistick\u00e1 formace Sta\u010dilo! a hnut\u00ed Motorist\u00e9, ka\u017ed\u00e9 se ziskem 6 procent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159esuny mezi t\u00e1bory: zklaman\u00ed voli\u010di SPOLU a nevoli\u010d\u016f t\u00e1hnou k Babi\u0161ovi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analytici Kantaru upozor\u0148uj\u00ed na v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zm\u011bny v elektor\u00e1tu oproti volb\u00e1m p\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159mi lety. \u201eZa zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159esun voli\u010d\u016f od SPOLU ke Starost\u016fm nebo fakt, jak se rozm\u00edstili voli\u010di SOCDEM \u2013 pouze mal\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st z nich podpo\u0159\u00ed uskupen\u00ed Sta\u010dilo!, v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00edce si vybralo hnut\u00ed ANO a podstatn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st z nich k volb\u00e1m nep\u0159ijde. Je tak\u00e9 patrn\u00e1 siln\u00e1 mobilizace b\u00fdval\u00fdch nevoli\u010d\u016f sm\u011brem k ANO, solidn\u011b si v tomto sm\u011bru vede tak\u00e9 STAN,\u201c uvedla agentura.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ochota lid\u00ed j\u00edt hlasovat aktu\u00e1ln\u011b dosahuje 84 procent, co\u017e je nadpr\u016fm\u011br v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u0159edchoz\u00edmi m\u011b\u0159en\u00edmi. Kantar ale upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee jde pouze o deklaraci respondent\u016f, nikoli o p\u0159esn\u00fd odhad volebn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dasti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sporn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla, r\u016fzn\u00e9 agentury<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zat\u00edmco Kantar p\u0159ipisuje ANO 33 procent, jin\u00e9 v\u00fdzkumy vykresluj\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00fd obr\u00e1zek. STEM a STEM\/MARK p\u0159isuzuj\u00ed Babi\u0161ov\u011b stran\u011b 28, respektive 27,5 procenta hlas\u016f. P\u0159esto i tyto odhady potvrzuj\u00ed n\u00e1skok opozi\u010dn\u00edho hnut\u00ed p\u0159ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed koalic\u00ed SPOLU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ztr\u00e1ty koalice SPOLU a posilov\u00e1n\u00ed STAN mohou b\u00fdt sign\u00e1lem hlub\u0161\u00edho \u0161t\u011bpen\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edho t\u00e1bora, zat\u00edmco ANO t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z mobilizace d\u0159\u00edve apatick\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f. Rostouc\u00ed podporu zaznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 i hnut\u00ed Sta\u010dilo!, kter\u00e9 podle jin\u00fdch agentur m\u016f\u017ee dos\u00e1hnout a\u017e dev\u00edti procent, zat\u00edmco Motorist\u00e9 se pohybuj\u00ed na hranici p\u011bti procent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hra o ka\u017ed\u00fd hlas p\u0159ed \u0159\u00edjnem<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sn\u011bmovn\u00ed volby 3. a 4. \u0159\u00edjna budou podle v\u0161eho soubojem, v n\u011bm\u017e se rozhodne nejen o s\u00edle opozice, ale i o stabilit\u011b vl\u00e1dn\u00edho bloku. Trendy z pr\u016fzkum\u016f nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee ANO dr\u017e\u00ed pevn\u00e9 veden\u00ed, zat\u00edmco SPOLU se pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s odlivem \u010d\u00e1sti sv\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f ke STAN a na levici s\u00edl\u00ed Sta\u010dilo!.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br Kantaru je proto pro sou\u010dasnou vl\u00e1du varuj\u00edc\u00ed: bez v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mobilizace vlastn\u00edch voli\u010d\u016f m\u016f\u017ee kabinet Petra Fialy \u010delit je\u0161t\u011b hlub\u0161\u00ed erozi podpory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rozpor mezi pr\u016fzkumy m\u016f\u017ee zam\u00edchat kartami<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obraz, kter\u00fd nab\u00edz\u00ed Kantar, v\u0161ak nen\u00ed jedin\u00fd. V\u010derej\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fzkumy STEM a STEM\/MARK ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee ANO se pohybuje pod hranic\u00ed t\u0159iceti procent, kolem 27 a\u017e 28 procent. Koalice SPOLU se podle t\u011bchto dat dr\u017e\u00ed stabiln\u011b a STAN posiluje. Souboj o t\u0159et\u00ed m\u00edsto se tak st\u00e1v\u00e1 t\u011bsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a n\u00e1skok ANO u\u017e nep\u016fsob\u00ed nedotknuteln\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anal\u00fdzy tak\u00e9 nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee i p\u0159esto\u017ee ANO udr\u017eelo v\u011bt\u0161inu sv\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f z roku 2021, nedok\u00e1\u017ee dostate\u010dn\u011b oslovovat nov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edznivce. Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed strany naopak \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b \u010derpaj\u00ed podporu z \u0159ad nerozhodnut\u00fdch a um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9ho st\u0159edu. Podle propo\u010dt\u016f na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u011bchto model\u016f by mohly SPOLU, STAN a Pir\u00e1ti spole\u010dn\u011b dos\u00e1hnout a\u017e na 105\u2013110 mand\u00e1t\u016f a v optimistick\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i dokonce na \u00fastavn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mobilizace rozhodne<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vysok\u00fd pod\u00edl nerozhodnut\u00fdch a b\u00fdval\u00fdch nevoli\u010d\u016f m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v z\u00e1v\u011bru kampan\u011b kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd. Pokud se vl\u00e1dn\u00ed strany dok\u00e1\u017eou sjednotit a z\u00edskat zp\u011bt voli\u010de, kte\u0159\u00ed se od nich odklonili, m\u016f\u017ee se nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed trend je\u0161t\u011b zm\u011bnit. P\u0159esto\u017ee ANO t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z pevn\u00e9ho j\u00e1dra sv\u00fdch podporovatel\u016f, jeho n\u00e1skok nen\u00ed nezpochybniteln\u00fd a volebn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u00fd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hra o sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed zem\u011b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Volby 3. a 4. \u0159\u00edjna tak nejsou jen soubojem o nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed klub ve Sn\u011bmovn\u011b. Jde i o budouc\u00ed sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed zem\u011b: zda z\u016fstane u proevropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, nebo se vr\u00e1t\u00ed k populistick\u00e9 politice, kter\u00e1 spol\u00e9h\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e na protestn\u00ed hlasy ne\u017e na dlouhodob\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rozd\u00edln\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky pr\u016fzkum\u016f ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee karty nejsou rozd\u00e1ny a mobilizace voli\u010d\u016f m\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdsledek z\u00e1sadn\u011b ovlivnit. Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed blok tak stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed v\u00fdzvou, ale nikoli p\u0159ed prohranou bitvou. Pr\u00e1v\u011b dynamika posledn\u00edch dn\u016f kampan\u011b m\u016f\u017ee rozhodnout o tom, zda se poda\u0159\u00ed udr\u017eet proevropsk\u00fd sm\u011br a zabr\u00e1nit n\u00e1vratu politiky zalo\u017een\u00e9 na osobn\u00edm vlivu jednoho l\u00eddra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>

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Pokud by se sn\u011bmovn\u00ed volby konaly u\u017e v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stranou by z\u016fstalo hnut\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1503,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,55],"tags":[588,594,595,591,593,589,590,592],"class_list":["post-1502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cesko","category-hlavni-udalosti","tag-ano-preference","tag-mobilizace-volicu","tag-politicke-pruzkumy-cr","tag-pruzkum-kantar-zari-2025","tag-rijnove-volby-2025","tag-spolu-volebni-ztraty","tag-stan-posiluje","tag-volebni-trendy-cesko-2025","pmpro-has-access"],"mb":[],"mfb_rest_fields":["title","gutenberg_elementor_mode"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1502","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1502"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1502\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1504,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1502\/revisions\/1504"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1503"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1502"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1502"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inregion.cz\/mystaging01\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1502"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}